When teeth with "good" prognoses were excluded, the predictive accuracy dropped approximately 50%. The coefficients from this model were able to predict accurately the 5-year and 8-year prognoses 81% of the time. Increased probing depth, more severe furcation involvement, greater mobility, unsatisfactory crown-to-root ratio, malpositioned teeth, and teeth used as fixed abutments resulted in worse initial prognoses. A multiple linear regression model was constructed for predicting initial prognosis based on initial clinical data. The method of generalized estimating equations (GEE) for correlated data was utilized to determine the relationship of each clinical factor to the assignment of initial prognosis, improvement in prognosis at 5 years, and worsening in prognosis at 5 years. This study evaluated 100 treated periodontal patients (2,484 teeth) under maintenance care for 5 years, with 38 of these patients followed for 8 years, to determine the relationship of assigned prognoses to the clinical criteria commonly used in the development of prognosis. The assignment of prognosis is one of the most important functions undertaken in clinical practice, yet there is little evidence to support the current decision-making process which is based on an outdated model of disease etiology and progression.
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